Andrew Keen and Robert Scoble talk about what will happen in 2014
0:00 was it so much 2014 and
0:05 go back to Attalla about the year to come
0:09 than the Amanda Silicon Valley
0:13 admires and lob and sometimes even allow Robert a
0:17 Scarborough almost welcome to 2014 what's gonna happen in 2014
0:22 well you expect and I'm gonna get you back in a year's time and get it rum
0:27 you are going to be humiliating I I think it's gonna be a world where both
0:31 the horrible wearable Wow do we buy an Apple i watch
0:35 word Google glass I think that's going to be a a major story
0:38 another major story does 4k TV or
0:42 Ultra HD have a chance another
0:46 story will be I'm is Apple finally
0:49 gonna take over the entire world media or as a
0:53 so we got three stories that let's go through them individually purse while
0:56 where both wearables more wearables
0:59 now it 2014 gonna be the year where I know you're the crazy guy with a couple
1:04 glasses but they're not ready yet for ordinary mortals like
1:07 myself now I I think this is gonna need it
1:11 cooking time 2014 at the gonna be ready it'll be ready you could buy it in 2014
1:16 I i just don't think it's going to be the kind of thing my dad's gonna buy
1:20 I'm right away I think it's going to take a nap 34
1:24 five years before most people in society wanna wear something on their base
1:28 that does smart computing some although I
1:32 in the one we got the material for a powerful well in vertical so it's gonna
1:36 happen faster a Oakley ski goggles that have a little
1:39 computer and I'm from recon instruments those are pretty cool
1:43 and and I if your gonna buy ski goggle the country are
1:46 that the dollar's why not buy one that has a a sensor to show you where your
1:50 kids are on the mountain
1:51 show you where you are on the mound show you how fast you going and what your
1:55 hang time on your jumps are
1:56 I why not get smarter glass like that so wearables a parade in 2014 yep
2:02 you're saying television's going to get blown up finally in 2014
2:05 well you mean the HT we're already seeing
2:08 where everything a trend where the the cord cutting Tran
2:12 or getting rid of the cable company going I
2:15 getting your TV on an iPad or happen in 2013
2:19 it it started to but is
2:23 I know Apple's working on a TV pride set-top box
2:27 what kinda back will they have been the market
2:30 and they could have a deeper fact particularly as the industry really
2:34 starts to ring up for
2:35 this poultry ATRs sharper HD screen
2:39 which by the way even if I could afford one I
2:43 don't know that I can get content to it because content at four times the five
2:47 although he hasn't ended yet he had an interesting piece last week suggesting
2:51 that
2:52 Apple was way behind on TV Microsoft ahead
2:55 with the deck but the x box one only for two million
2:59 copies in the first weekend Apple felt a lot more than that but I'll try I gotta
3:04 have a fever and I was using it last weekend
3:06 and it's so annoying so clunky so attacking for me to say something like a
3:11 good gotta be seriously I pay
3:13 yep I agree with how we gonna see a a theory of apple pie
3:17 in TV in 20 we could they just bought a new we could get a guy and has yes or no
3:21 yes we're guessing yeah we're gonna see a new Apple TV
3:24 I just don't know that a physical like a no no no not not a glass
3:29 when I about the 24th service in a box that's gonna be a lot less clunky and a
3:34 lot more and
3:34 but even that interesting but what about that but when I'm gonna now but if Apple
3:38 Apple has the money
3:39 take find content the oath and get exclusive content go for like Netflix
3:44 did with the house to cart
3:45 if Apple does that any for serious level
3:50 radically changes what we think about TV and that's your
3:53 that point you say Apple question in 2014 well Apple takeover of media
3:58 and in a way over I don't think they can but they're
4:02 they have the components on the table to really make
4:06 a serious changed how we think about me dnt be
4:09 I'm it's just does Tim Cook have how the
4:13 Pittsburgh do it is eager to spend some that 100
4:16 thirty billion dollars he has in the bank to go and buy
4:20 like AP by the NFL right and put it on his TV and took it away from the
4:25 the cable company and I would radically reshape what we think that the PBM
4:29 and radically work a lot of people to buy higher at Apple TV just couldn't
4:34 stay
4:35 has it stay up to date on word what about the the Gesu
4:39 I mean Google trying to do the same pain read Bible spin
4:43 I read a very interesting book about this coming
4:46 huge clash between Apple and Google is back in a feature more more in 2014 I
4:52 by between Google and Apple over who's going to be the dominant media company I
4:56 think so and
4:57 on where both right it's gonna be glass versus watch
5:00 and then Google but when labs which also has a large
5:04 so maybe Google's gonna come out with a win. labs watch
5:07 and a Google glass and go straight at Apple and see if they can I keep you
5:12 from buying the apple i watch
5:14 which Apple has a lot of advantages over Google because the stores in the
5:18 distribution
5:19 service and the brand that they have versus Google
5:22 but Google's gonna be a really in sync up next year
5:26 had pressed on on on the show earlier this year as well
5:30 and I asked him if Amazon could be applied at in this great day
5:34 can have them play in that in the same game as Apple and disclosure I work
5:38 Rackspace a competitive Amazon
5:40 i'ma science the the greatest competitor I've ever seen
5:44 very smartly run I am and so yes they are gonna be a player
5:49 no matter what they understand my buying behaviour
5:52 far deeper level anybody of any other retailer any other
5:56 thats and their all they have to do is continue building on that knowledge
6:00 and they're gonna win gonna have with Microsoft in 2014
6:04 I'm you see how well a new CEO I we're gonna be
6:08 way to feed as he unleashed innovation inside
6:12 that possible and Microsoft on a mission about I think so
6:15 you know they're still so many you're a guy you know that I had a better than
6:18 any
6:19 why its been seven years since I worked there but there are still so many in my
6:23 friends and so many smart people there
6:25 and they have such a deep research bench with R&D labs there
6:29 that if they I unlocked that
6:32 and in a mock people and let them chill morning guys like to run am people like
6:37 them
6:38 well my the problem is makes up has a very committee driven culture and that's
6:43 not the way to get stepped out the door
6:45 you know it since I left what are they really ship that
6:48 new in in a bit and a mention that we understand it
6:51 new and interesting the Kinect sensor in
6:54 for ninety thousand people a bit
6:58 with a company that has sixty your any billion dollars in the bank
7:01 have including something like 8 p.m. billion dollar business is behind it
7:06 or me to only be able to point to one thing as an indictment on their
7:09 innovation machine
7:10and that this new CEO can get that innovation machine a ramp up a little
7:14 bit
7:15 and ship maybe I products and the next seven years
7:18 that we can look to holy wait till that engine gets
7:22 unlocked they can really do them something great
7:25 final questions travel what could happen in 2014 what would you like to have
7:31 something being something exciting not just another
7:34 to when I P A something that you think really made
7:38 attacked think about it on a
7:41 picked up perhaps the rest the promise that
7:44 a we're we're in a world that the generation
7:49 were iteration is it rewarded and that
7:52 and you have one somewhere we feel to me like you and mask
7:57 the propose something really crazy in bed or
8:00 or jenny was your man of the year 2013
8:03 bed is he gonna actually deliver on
8:06 on his the hyper loop I don't think so
8:09 I'm not going i burly I is Larry Page gonna put itself
8:13 driving are I don't mean up %um
8:18 now we gotta pick someone so we can take a lot of hard work like think but we're
8:21 not gonna
8:22 we're not gonna have when bill anywhere anytime
8:26 am I gonna get a Google self-driving car by repaid
8:29 I don't think well maybe watch I I don't think his I'm gonna give
8:33 if I and is deputy that's gonna
8:37 have drones delivered that the mouth I don't think for so
8:41 where the real action as it is in the iteration and
8:44 when youth are starting to see
8:47 what's coming because generation it's a contextual operator
8:52 we're certain that I have a boner knows whether walking
8:56 driving shopping in a meeting
9:00 right and there's life a contextual same old for
9:04 go to study in do make that happen
9:07 if that happens that's gonna bring you had a few min
9:10 machine it's gonna be a pretty interesting to watch
9:15 maybe should write a book about back ideas i've but that so I warn you now
9:18 the book about 2008 pain as previewed by Robert Scoble the man who sees the
9:23 future as well have anyone gonna get you back at the end of the year
9:26 the show how right or wrong you are Robert happy new year
9:30 or than honor and a pleasure to have you and I hope you have
9:34 help be and particularly wealthy 2040
9:37 thank you very much you too
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